Weekly Technical Analysis Forecast – May 05, 2025
The recent shift in momentum began after EUR/USD failed to clear the 1.1420 resistance. This led to a downside break below both a key support trendline and the 30-SMA, signaling that bears had taken over. However, for a new downtrend to be confirmed, the pair must begin forming lower highs and lower lows. So far, the pair has printed a lower high, but the next step is a break below 1.1240 to establish a lower low and confirm a deeper correction towards 1.1100. Failure to do so may result in a bounce back toward 1.1550, especially if buyers step in near current levels. As long as the price remains below the 4-hour 30-SMA and 1.1420, the bearish setup stays in play.
Gold found some support over the mid-April low of $3200, which could determine the next directional move. As long as price remains capped beneath $3350 from its latest failed bounce, the broader descending pattern remains valid. If bears regain control and drive the price back below $3200, it would reinforce the bearish structure, with attention shifting to $3080. However, a break above $3350 would trigger a short squeeze, and encourage fresh bullish momentum, opening the door for a potential rally toward $3500. The short-term bias remains cautiously bearish as previous medium-term buyers continue to take profit.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is showing early signs of a double top formation around recent highs, a potential bearish reversal signal. However, the picture is nuanced. There’s a conflict between timeframes, as higher time frame indicators are overbought, hinting at a possible long-term reversal, while short-term momentum is oversold, leaving room for a near-term bounce or consolidation before any decisive move. The 1.3200 level stands out as a key support. A confirmed break below it would activate the double top pattern, targeting 1.3130 along the 30-SMA initially. If bearish momentum accelerates, 1.3030 would be exposed. 1.3440 is the hurdle to lift before a bullish continuation.
AUD/USD is consolidating within a tight range, defined by the demand and supply zones between 0.6300 and 0.6500 from last November’s sell-off. A breakout above resistance would resume the prior bullish trend and potentially open the path to higher highs. On the other hand, failure to sustain upward momentum could see the pair drop back to retest the round number at 0.6200. A deeper retreat would expose the next floor at 0.6100, marking a potential shift in sentiment toward the bearish side. For now, AUD/USD remains in rebound mode with likelihood of a retracement in the next couple of days.
